By Derek Brigham

Today I got a request from Katie Nadeau and Sheila Kihne who are heading up the GOTV effort for CD3 this year. They wanted me to make a map to illustrate the reality of just how blue CD3 had become to help dispel the myth that CD3 is an easy territory for the Republican party.

I took the 2008 Minnesota House election results map showing the winning party by precinct and enlarged the northwest metro area. Next I cut out all the areas that were not in CD3 (there are a few flaws I left in like SD45 so I did not have to cut off the names). The results?

As you can see, CD3 owns a lot of blue. The breakdown shows a mostly centrist and divided picture, very different than say CD 4 or 5. (Larger image below the fold)

The lightest pink and blue are less than 50%  for GOP or DFL (read: true purple) seen mostly in Downey’s Edina area on this map.  There was not much in the way of these razor thin margin precincts in 2008. Look for there to be a few more baby pinks replacing baby blues in 2010.

Getting slightly more comfortable but still healthy battlegrounds for the respective parties is the light pink and blue: 50% – 62.5% for GOP or DFL. Plymouth, Eden Prairie eastern Minnetonka Minnetonka make up these mixed precincts.

The next shade darker covers most of Maple Grove, Minnetonka and Wayzata for the GOP, and Bloomington,  Coon Rapids, Brooklyn Park areas for the DFL: 62.5% - 75%. This shows how even though they are more sparse than their eastern suburbs 33A and 32A really are the meat and potatoes areas for the GOP in CD3.

There are 2 levels of ownership up from there: 75% - 87.5% and 87.6%-100%. Not a lot of either of those in CD3. Except for parts of Brooklyn Park and Maple Grove and Rogers.

So what’s the take away here? This is not a time to get soft—CD3 is by no means an all red territory, and if 2010 were a repeat of ‘06 and ‘08 the DFL would make even bigger dents into the wild west.

I believe it will be a good year for the the center right, but this map should be seen by anyone in CD3 as a wake up call. We (read: you) need to get to caucus and get busy starting today through November to build this area. Become a precinct chair, join the GOTV effort in your BPOU or with Katie and Sheila.